In its weekly EuroMonitor, the European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity discusses all relevant recent happenings in Europe and its direct surroundings, regarding international cooperation, development and democracy.
Europe in the World
· A toothless Europe? Maybe not so quite. Although many political analysts have pointed at the EU’s very disharmonic initial response to the Iran war, with growing discontent about the role of EC President Von der Leyen, EU leaders seem to have recovered a little bit of leadership. This week, Donald Trump received a clear ‘no’ from the EU27 foreign ministers when asking (or rather: demanding) help to secure the Strait of Hormuz, with Kaja Kallas stating; “This is not Europe’s war”.
· And that’s not all: the leaders of France, Germany and Italy, together with Canada and the U.K., have warned Israel not to pursue a ground offensive in Lebanon in a joint statement. The countries warn for ‘devastating humanitarian consequences’ and express their ‘solidarity with the Lebanese people, who have been unwillingly drawn into conflict’. Already more than 1 million people have been displaced since Israeli bombardments commenced on March 3.
· It’s not all harmony and assertiveness, though. Not only has the war on Iran raised great concerns about the US’s commitment to arms deliveries on Ukraine; Russian oil has also become much more attractive, with energy prices rising rapidly across the EU and Trump lifting sanctions on Russian oil at sea. This week, Belgium’s Bart de Wever has joined the group of EU leaders calling for negotiations with Russia. In the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin could probably be spotted laughing in his sleeve a bit.
Central- and Eastern Europe
· De Wever’s comments struck a nerve in his own country, but also within the EU, with Friedrich Merz and António Costa condemning the move. In addition, Polish PM Tusk warned on Sunday that domestic Eurosceptic forces, seeking to break up the EU, are now stronger than ever – emboldened by allies both in Moscow and in Washington. Tusk accused nationalist president Nawrocki and the PiS party of steering the country towards leaving the EU, after Nawrocki vetoed a very ambitious defence spending plan from the Polish government.
· That these Eurosceptic forces have themselves an ally in Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is no secret. Hungary – together with Slovakia – is still very much dependent on Russian energy, but has been the main victim of Russian attacks on the Druzhba pipeline, pushing energy prices in Hungary and threatening Orbán’s re-election on April 12th. Even so, Orbán’s betrayal of European values knows no stopping. This week, Hungary not only cancelled a Brussels meeting between Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine about the pipeline, but also pressed the EU to scrap tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers. Such a move would boost a key source of revenue in funding Russia’s war on Ukraine.
· Meanwhile, opposition leader Péter Magyar branded Orbán a ‘traitor’, accusing him of enlisting Russian agents to interfere in Hungary’s April election. Polls show Tisza largely ahead of Fidesz, but with the governing party in control of much of the media, and full-scale Russian interference going on, certainty is hard to find.
· 11 countries in Central- and Eastern Europe are autocratizing, of which 5 are EU Member States. An annual report from the V-Dem Institute in Sweden identified three new autocratizers compared to last year, with Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia joining Romania, Hungary as Member States, and Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Serbia and Ukraine in their neighbourhood. The report identified two countries with a positive (democratizing) trend: Montenegro and Poland.
Western Balkan
· Croatia has denied accusations by Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic that Croatia has been involved in aiding Serbia’s student protests. Vucic said Croatia had participated in aiding the protests, attempting to create a ‘colour revolution’; Croatian PM Andrej Plenkovic said Croatia has ‘no interest in being some kind of puppeteer behind the scenes’.
· Protests continue in Bosnia over the February 12 tram accident that killed a student. Protesters are, like in Serbia, demanding accountability from authorities, a thorough investigation and improved public transport safety. Saturday’s protest was the tenth since the accident.
· Deputy Prime Minister Belinda Balluku of Albania has been charged of interference with public procurement procedures in construction projects, sparking great controversy on Edi Rama’s government. Balluku, who is a heavyweight in Albanian politics, initially got Rama’s backing against the prosecution, who picked a fight with the justice system; Rama has refused to lift Balluku’s immunity, and proposed new legislation to block the prosecution from suspending officials in office.
· With Iceland potentially looking for EU accession with a referendum this summer, Montenegrin officials are hopeful this will benefit their country’s chances on a swift accession. With Iceland already aligned with 2/3 of EU legislation, Montenegro could align its timeline with Reykjavik’s, so that a joint accession in 2027 or 2028 is feasible. A double enlargement is more likely, analysts say, to gather support from EU leaders and the general population.
Southern Caucasus
· The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has published a report on the human rights crisis in Georgia. The document describes systemic violations, democratic backsliding, and a growing trend towards the concentration of power. The report follows a decision by the OSCE to trigger something called the ‘Moscow Mechanism’, prompting the creation of a fact-based assessment with significant international authority. If Georgia fails to implement the report’s recommendations, an international court case could follow.
· The EU will send a rapid response team to Armenia to counter threats of interference ahead of the parliamentary elections on June 7th, Kaja Kallas has said. Russian interference is regarded as a great threat, with pro-Russian opposition parties participating jointly in the elections.
