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Syria at a Crossroads: Hope for Democracy or a Facade of Elections?
It has been over 10 months since the posters of former dictator Bashar Al-Assad were ceremoniously torn from the streets of the capital, Damascus. After a brutal fifty years under the dictatorial rule of the Assad family, during which hundreds of thousands of Syrians were displaced, murdered, abused, and scattered across different continents, Syrians are yearning for political stability. But is that political stability in sight after the announced parliamentary elections in October, and what does this mean for Dutch foreign policy?
From Israeli Attacks to Internal Conflicts
Since Assad’s removal on December 10 by the terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa now at the helm of the transitional government, Syria has gone through various phases of instability and unrest. From Israeli attacks on the Syrian army headquarters to deadly clashes between minority groups—the Bedouins and Druze in the As-Suwayda region—the al-Sharaa government faces numerous administrative and political challenges, which are also felt on the international stage. However, due to tensions in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza, news about Syria has faded into the background. Parliamentary elections were initially announced between September 15 and 20 but were postponed at the last minute to October 5, 2025. Under the Assad regime, elections were far from fair and transparent. The question now is whether the upcoming elections, given the current political situation, are genuinely elections in which ordinary citizens truly vote.
Elections with Limitations
The upcoming elections will, according to the temporary election law, bring changes to the Syrian parliament and governance. One major change is the expansion of the parliament from 150 to 230 seats. However, the term “elections” may be misleading. Interim President Al-Sharaa personally selects one-third of the seats (70), while the remaining 140 seats are chosen by so-called electoral colleges. These colleges, which represent different regions, are appointed top-down by the High Committee—an entity itself internally appointed by Al-Sharaa. Formally, this structure can be described as “organized elections,” but they are not direct elections in which the people have a say over which representatives enter parliament.
What about the opposition in Syria? One party that has been able to openly profile itself since Assad’s fall is the Syrian Democratic People’s Party. Founded in 1973 with a social-democratic ideology, it was heavily suppressed under Assad, with members arrested and activities conducted in exile. The Max van der Stoel Foundation spoke with a member of the party who wished to remain anonymous. This member explained that the party cannot participate in the upcoming elections: “There is still no legal framework for political parties to register, let alone participate in elections.” This illustrates the lack of formal (constitutional) frameworks, which prevents opposition parties from officially registering. On the positive side, the opposition can now operate more openly and safely: “There is a lot of political opposition in Syria; you can openly criticize the government, and we are even invited to speak on Syrian state TV.”
Charter Flights Facilitated by the Dutch Government
Political developments in Syria also affect the Netherlands’ foreign policy. Last week, the first charter flights departed from Rotterdam The Hague Airport, organized and initiated by the Dutch government. These charter flights are voluntary return trips to the country of origin. Departing Syrians were required to sign a form officially withdrawing their asylum applications.
This is the first time since Assad’s fall that the Dutch government has facilitated the return of Syrians. Besides the flight itself, each adult who voluntarily returns receives a one-time payment of approximately €2,600, while minors receive around €1,600. The member of the Syrian Democratic People’s Party finds this absurd, stating that the economic situation in Syria has not improved much since Assad’s removal: “The country is still a mess; there is no work for many people.” He also notes that the minimum income is so low that the offered money barely covers a family’s monthly expenses. On the other hand, he understands the desire of many Syrians to return: “Given the only ‘stability’ that exists since Assad’s fall, this is the ultimate chance to go back.”
Right-wing parties in the Netherlands have pushed to withdraw temporary residence permits for Syrians, but it is unclear whether this will actually reduce the number of Syrians coming to the country.
Safety vs. Reality
The increased pressure from right-wing parties to return Syrians and declare areas “safe” is highly contradictory to the current security risks. Despite Assad’s fall, the country remains unstable under the transitional government. Syria still carries a negative, “red” travel advisory. The prevailing narrative that it is “safe and stable” to return Syrians is therefore highly controversial. For various minority groups, such as Alawites, Syria is considered extremely dangerous, and they risk oppression. The member of the Syrian Democratic People’s Party confirms: “It is now safe for Sunni Muslims—the religious majority who were punished under the regime—but that does not apply to everyone.” The simplistic framing in political debates that parts of Syria are safe must therefore be taken with caution.
The Future of Syria: Hope or Repetition?
What will Syria’s political state be in light of the upcoming parliamentary elections? The transitional government is actively working to create stability. Last week, interim president Al-Sharaa addressed the United Nations General Assembly about his vision for the country—a level of international engagement Syria has not had for over six decades. He emphasized that justice must be pursued for victims of the regime and called on the world not to trivialize the suffering of past years. He also urged the United States to formally lift economic sanctions so that the economy and infrastructure can recover. Although many sanctions have already been lifted, the main measures remain in place. The democratic path Al-Sharaa’s Syria takes in the coming period will determine the lifting of these sanctions.
The member of the Syrian Democratic People’s Party remains skeptical: it may take years before a new formal constitution is established. Until then, the opposition—including his party—offers the transitional government room to implement necessary changes.
In conclusion, Syria currently faces a security and democracy dilemma. Statements by Dutch far-right politicians about accelerated returns of Syrians and the withdrawal of residence permits trivialize Syrian suffering. While Al-Sharaa’s government is attempting to make progress, there are still significant steps needed before Syria can be considered safe and develop into the stable democracy Syrians deserve. The coming years will show whether the new Syria fulfills its promise of freedom or slips back into old patterns.