In the 2010s, Lebanon has spiraled into a ‘deliberate economic depression’, as infamously dubbed by the World Bank. Politicians and other power-holding actors in the countries are said to be responsible for the complete impoverishment of Lebanese society. On top of the economic crisis, an enormous explosion devastated the Beirut port in August 2020 – this explosion has also been tied to patterns of governmental corruption in the country. A post-civil war peace deal in 1989 created an ineffective sectarian power-sharing system.
Lebanon has been in a political deadlock ever since the Beirut Blast in August 2020. Less than a week after the massive explosion in Lebanon’s capital Beirut displaced over 300,000 people and left the city devastated, the new government under Diab resigned, on the 10th of August 2020. After the resignation of Diab, Mustapha Adib was put forward by parliament as the new Prime Minister in September of 2020. However, he failed to form a government since Shia parties were unwilling to accept the proposed technocratic cabinet. This led to the Adib resigning only a month later in September of 2020. Following the resignation of Adib, former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri was re-chosen as Prime Minister. Hariri tried to form a non-partisan cabinet, but failed to do so due to other parties hindering the formation process. After months of failed attempts to form a government, Hariri resigned in July of 2021.
Hariri was succeeded by Najib Mikati, who managed to form a government on the 10th of September 2020, after months of political stalemate. However, while Mikati managed to form a government, the political deadlock continues. The investigation into the Beirut Blast is causing a rift within the government, with some parties such as Hezbollah claiming the investigation is biased and that the lead investigator should be removed.
Throughout 2021, protests against the government continued in Lebanon. The already existing economic crisis has only been worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Beirut explosion. The hyperinflation has led to the Lebanese lira losing up to 90 percent of its value, and prices of food, medicine and gas have skyrocketed while more and more Lebanese are living in poverty. Emergency funds have been promised by foreign donors, on the condition that a reform plan is agreed upon. However, due to the political stalemate the government continues to fail to agree on reforms.
In October of 2021, the tensions reached a peak when a protest staged by Hezbollah and Amal resulted in an armed clash with members of the Christian Lebanese Forces party in Beirut. The violence left 7 people dead and more than 30 injured.In the lead-up to long-anticipated May 15, 2022 elections, Sunni leader Saad al-Hariri stepped down, saying he will boycott the upcoming elections. Hariri has been the leader of the Future Movement, the biggest representative of the Sunni community in Lebanon. The resignation of Hariri leaves the Sunni block without a leader. Hariri also called on his party to not have any candidates run in the upcoming general elections in May.
Ongoing protests since October 2019
The impact of the war in Syria, as well as years of corruption and inefficiency, have caused Lebanon’s GDP growth to fall from 8%-9% in 2011 to 0% in 2019. In 2019 Lebanon had a national debt of around 150% and unemployment among under 35s is as high as 37%. A government-led ‘Ponzi scheme’ led to enormous debt as the economic position of Lebanon fell after the Syrian civil war. This caused the Lebanese currency to inflate tremendously against the dollar, causing basic commodities to become very expensive for Lebanon’s population.
In 2019 the population already was increasingly fed up with the blatant corruption and nepotism among politicians. When the new government announced in October 2019 that they were going to implement a tax on internet-based calling services such as WhatsApp, the population had had enough. The combination of growing economic and political grievances sparked the start of what is called the Lebanese “October Revolution” on October 17th 2019. The protests started small but in a short time grew to a movement made up of hundreds of thousands of people protesting all over the country. The protests paralyzed Lebanon’s banking and transportation system and caused prime-minister Saad Hariri to hand in his resignation on October 29th 2019.
Even though the protest group managed to accomplish this, in reality, they are very decentralized and lack a leader. Often the different fractions of protesters have contradictory positions but they all tend to agree on a couple of things. The first is that the vast corruption among businessmen and politicians needs to end and the second is that they demand better governance. The anti-government protest continued throughout 2020 and 2021 as the social and economic situation in Lebanon also keeps deteriorating. About three quarters of the population is estimated to live in poverty due to the financial crisis that had led to the devaluation of the Lebanese lira. According to the UN, starvation has become a growing reality for thousands of Lebanese. It is estimated that more than one million Lebanese are in need of assistance to cover their basic needs. A lack of government funds to buy fuel has led to a fuel crisis that causes large-scale power outages which also effects hospitals. Prices of food continue to rise and life-saving medication is not available do to the medicine crisis. At the same time the government has been lifting subsidies on gas and medicine, causing prices to skyrocket even more. Meanwhile, the government continues to fail to implement the swift reforms needed to receive a IMF bailout programme.
Lebanese-Israeli relations
Lebanon is also facing several challenges in its foreign policymaking. In 2009 the Leviathan field was discovered and found to hold about natural gas reserves of 600 billion cubic meters. The Leviathan falls in 860 square kilometers of disputed oceanic territory between Israel and Lebanon. This has raised tensions with Israel over the last few years, only negatively affecting the already strained relationship between the neighbours. In October of 2020 the countries launched talks to address the long-running dispute. The conflict has prevented the development of the offshore resources. The delegates of the countries were clear to state that they are seeking a technical solution and are not there to negotiate peace and normalisation of relations.
Formally Lebanon and Israel remain at war. Since the 2006 Lebanon War there have only been some minor border incidents, but the country’s have not signed an official peace treaty. Especially the relations between Hezbollah and Israel are strenuous, as a consequence of fighting during the 2006 war. Israeli law regards Lebanon as an enemy state and the border between the countries remains closed. A 2008 poll stated that 97% of Lebanese hold a negative view of Jews, illustrating why little has changed. After the Beirut explosion in August of 2020 Tel Aviv sought to show sympathy by raising a Lebanese flag though, also proving the country with support via a third way. Tensions between the two countries rose again during the Israel-Gaza war in 2021. After years of relative stability at the Israeli-Lebanese border, rockets were fired towards Israel from Lebanese territory in May of 2021. The Israeli’s responded with firing artillery at targets in Lebanon. In August of 2021 rockets were again launched from Lebanon and responded to with artillery fire from Israel. However, the tensions did not escalate into further conflict and the border has been stable since August. In 2022, tensions were rising again over a disputed maritime area, where Israel seeks gas production. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah reacted the party is willing to ‘strike’ the gas rig.
Lebanese-Syrian relations
Relations between Lebanon and its neighbour Syria have been fragmented since the Syrian conflict broke out. Tensions increased during the war in Syria when around 1 million refugees came to Lebanon. This has put immense pressure on the country of not even 7 million people. The war also negatively impacted Lebanon’s economy, which has been in a bad state for years now. In most recent times the Assad government and elements of Lebanon’s government, notably Hezbollah, have grown closer again. Both the Assad regime and Hezbollah are highly influenced by Iran, which further complicates Lebanon’s internal politics. With Saudi Arabia also wielding much influence in Lebanon, the country has become more polarized in recent times. Therefore it is no surprise that government formation has proven so difficult.
Lebanon is a republic. The National Assembly indirectly elects the president as head of state for a six years term. The president, upon a binding consultation with the National Assembly, appoints the prime minister. The prime minister chooses the cabinet, after consultation of the president and the National Assembly.
Election law
Sectarian divisions in the country have plagued every post-civil war government. Increasing pressure from outside actors during the Syrian Civil War (2011-) complicated domestic politics. The stand-off between the Hezbollah led March 8 Alliance and Future movement led March 14 Alliance paralyzed both parliament and government for almost a decade. The parliament was under pressure to reform itself, but the sectarian division complicated negotiations. After years of negotiations, in June 2017 a new electoral law was passed replacing the ‘’1960 law’’.
Under this system, parties gained votes based on their religious sect. In this system, eighteen different confessional groups share power, with parliamentary seats being reserved for different groups. Each sect was granted a certain number of seats based on a quota, this quota was however seen as unfair and unrepresentative due to the country’s demographic shift. The new system is still based on the confessional power distribution, but instead of the 26 constituencies, people now vote in 15 new constituencies. This creates a proportional representation system.
While confessionally distributed, MPs are elected by universal suffrage. The National Assembly is elected via a system of multi-member constituencies with each voter having two votes, one for a party and one for a specific candidate. The winner-take-all system, where the party winning most votes wins all the seats in the district, has been abolished as a result of the new election law.
Lebanon has no legal electoral threshold, for now, and no compulsory voting. Lebanon has universal suffrage for all men, with a minimum age of 21. Women should have elementary education and the minimum age of 21 to be authorised to vote. Remarkably, voters do not vote according to their place of residence, but according to their “civil record”, usually the residence of their forefathers.
Lebanon’s electoral system is very complicated, as it merges proportional representation with quotas to maintain the sectarian equilibrium in the country. It is exactly this equilibrium that has enabled the country’s elite (most of above mentioned parties) to capture Lebanon’s institutions, leading to enormous corruption and waste of public resources. Moreover, incumbent parties have redrawn electoral districts in their favour, ‘gerrymandering’, making it very difficult for new actors to enter the political arena. Moreover, the president must always be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni and the speaker of parliament a Shia. All powerful positions in Lebanon can be traced back to a sectarian powerplay, leading to a peculiar system in which all parties are trying to hold on to their ‘pillar’ of power.
The National Assembly
The unicameral National Assembly of Lebanon is elected for four years. The 128 seats in the National Assembly are equally divided among Muslims and Christians. Each of the eleven confessional subgroups occupies a fixed number of seats in the National Assembly. Due to this unusual division of seats in the National Assembly, the role of political parties in Lebanese politics is different from the role of political parties in normal parliamentary democracies. Many of the political parties are lists of candidates, supported by an important local figure. Political coalitions are therefore only formed because of electoral reasons, and easily fall apart once the seats in parliament are secured.
In this sectarian power-sharing system, two main alliances compete for power. The ‘March 8’ and ‘March 14’ alliances refer to dates during 2005 the Cedar revolution and in short were pro- and anti-Syrian blocs. ‘March 8’ consists mainly of the Maronite Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and the Shia Al-Amal and Hezbollah parties. They have had power since 2018 elections, having a 71 seat majority in the 128-seat parliament – and are blamed for the dysfunctionality of Lebanese political institutions. “March 14” refers to the anti-Syrian bloc and is led by the Sunni Future Movement, it also include hardline Christian groups such as the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb.
This form of parliamentary politics sustains a form of politics, based on satisfying instantly the grassroots support, rather than that it supports politics based on ideology and long-term objectives. Analysts say that Lebanese politics is both complicated and confusing. The combination of the fixed division of seats among the various religious groups, together with the many local candidates of different religions, makes it hard to get a clear view of the relative strength of political parties in the National Assembly.
Parliamentary elections
On May 15, 2022, citizens in Lebanon went to the polls for parliamentary elections. Turnout during the elections was low – 41 percent. The main takeaway of the election is a loss for Hezbollah’s alliance – they lose their parliamentary majority. Independent candidates did well – they took thirteen seats.
Final results of the May 15 polls show that ‘March 8’ lost their majority in parliament. They took 58 seats in parliament. Hezbollah and Amal together kept their 27 seats in parliament, but FPM and Hezbollah-affiliated independents did not win as much seats as in 2018. Among the high-profile losers was deputy parliament speaker Elie Ferzli, a long-time Hezbollah ally, who was ousted by a candidate backed by the Progressive Socialist Party. Hezbollah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan also conceded his seat in parliament. FPM has been overtaken by Lebanese Forces as the largest Christian party and overall bloc in parliament with 21 seats. Its leader Samir Geagea is a former warlord, heavily opposes Hezbollah and is affiliated with Saudi Arabia.
The main surprise at the polls were the achievements of independent opposition candidates, related to the 2019 protest movement. These went into the elections fragmented and were intimidated by incumbent political parties. Moreover, the current set-up of Lebanon’s election districts causes many difficulties for newcomer parties against existing political parties, that have entrenched political power. Together opposition took thirteen seats – a big win, taking a way of many household names in the Lebanese Parliament. Sunni candidates related to Saad al-Hariri, the leader of the Future Movement, took seven seats. Al-Hariri boycotted the elections and called upon his followers not to vote or register as candidate.
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