Europe in the World
- As U.S. President Donald Trump is desperately trying to find a way out of the Iran war, Europe fears the consequences of a probable escalation in the coming week(s). Trump threatens Tehran with massive attacks on Iranian energy plants and civilian infrastructure if it doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz; Iran has already announced its ‘widespread retaliation’, which would aggravate an already profound energy crisis.
- There are layers to the EU’s fears. European Council president António Costa warned that American attacks on civilian infrastructure would be ‘illegal and unacceptable’ on Monday. No surprise, because: if Trump defends attacks on civilian infrastructure by claiming that they are simply ‘part of war’, what is stopping Vladimir Putin from using exactly the same arguments to justify his attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets?
Central- and Eastern Europe
- With only five days to go until Hungarian voters go to the polls, PM Viktor Orbán is seeking help from every friend he’s got. Today, S. Vice-President J.D. Vance arrives in Budapest to speak at a rally in a football stadium. Orbán seems desperate to portray himself as the strongest ally of the U.S. President, but whether his affiliation with Trump & the MAGA-movement is effective is contested – more Hungarians have a negative opinion of the current Trump-administration than a positive one. Meanwhile, Tisza’s Peter Magyar keeps leading the polls with a 10% difference.
- If the J.D. Vance-visit won’t cut it for Orbán, what will? The help of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić maybe? The last months, Orbán has centred his re-election campaign around a complot theory surrounding Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of attacking energy infrastructure from Russia to Hungary, such as the Druzhba-pipeline. On Sunday, Vučić joined the fight – claiming that ‘explosives of devastating power’ were found near the Balkan Stream pipeline, which runs through Serbia and provides Russian gas to Hungary.
- It’s difficult to prove it, but a Russian-Serbian-Hungarian false flag-operation does not seem unlikely. Peter Magyar commented immediately that he received signals weeks before, that ‘something was going to happen in Serbia’ a week before the elections. Orbán is keen, he said, to do anything to distract voters from what really matters – the country’s corruption and economic weakness. We’ll see on Sunday if he succeeded in doing so.
- As Russia is actively involved in attempts to keep Orbán in his seat, Moldova is catching the opportunity to prove its worth to the European Union – claiming it has “hard-won knowledge and field-tested solutions” to Russian hybrid threats and attempted interference, referencing its national elections in 2025. Thus, Moldova’s deputy PM Cristina Gherasimov argues Moldova’s EU accession wouldn’t only make Moldova safer – it would be an investment in the security of every European election.
Western Balkans
- In a cooperative investigation, Balkan Insight and Haaretz have revealed that Serbia plans to produce drones with the Israeli arms giant Elbit Systems – despite the firm’s heavy involvement in the Israeli genocidal campaign in Gaza. Vučićannounced the opening of a drone factory in early March, but did not specify with whom Serbia was partnering – with good reason, apparently. Elbit Systems was named by the United Nations as one of the companies profiting the most from the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
- Vjosa Osmani, Kosovo’s president for the last 5 years, has left office after her term ended last Saturday. No successor is yet on the horizon: parliamentary speaker Albulena Haxhiu takes over temporarily until parliament votes a new head of state into office, something it has failed to do after the last two national elections. New elections become inevitable if a new president is not elected by April 28.
Southern Caucasus
- The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has criticized Georgia’s government for its reaction to the OSCE’s Moscow Mechanism-report, in which the organisation called for UN action on arbitrary detention and judicial independence in Georgia. According to rapporteur Patrycja Grzebyk, her visit to Georgian officials was met with hostility, and she was accused of being ‘biased’, and having a political agenda against Georgia.
