EuroMonitor – Week 13, 2026

Europe in the World

·       Last week in this monitor, we analysed the apparent ‘leadership’ European leaders seemed to show, when they denied Donald Trump their help in securing the Strait of Hormuz. But as Trump directly linked the lack of European support for the American-Israeli Iran war to his country’s support for NATO, EU leaders are anxious the U.S. will abandon support for Ukraine. European fears are deepened by an apparent quid pro quo offered by Russia, under which the Kremlin would stop sharing intelligence with Iran if the U.S. ceased supplying Ukraine with intel about Russia.

·       As a consequence, European leaders are trying to strike a balance between principle – calling the Iran war for what it is, illegal, and trying not to get drawn into the war – and ‘man management’ or the Rutte-method: supporting and praising Trump’s intentions, to prevent him from cutting off Ukraine. A seemingly impossible challenge, which Emmanuel Macron is trying to solve via the good-old United Nations.

European Affairs

·       As if the hostile environment around the European Union wasn’t fraught enough already, this week it became public that Europe’s main enemy – still Vladimir Putin – has a much larger ally in Viktor Orbán’s Hungary than already suspected. A Washington Post report said that Orbán’s government – primarily, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó – directly leaked confidential information from EU council meetings to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

·       The worrisome part? No one is really surprised, as emphasised by Polish PM Donald Tusk. As early as 2024, the EU limited the flow of confidential material to Hungary, with EU leaders primarily discussing sensitive topics like the Ukraine war in smaller formats (with intriguing code names like E4, NB8, Weimar, JEF). Even more awkward: the EU does not appear to have rock-solid rules on what constitutes ‘secret information’, and what the consequences are if it’s leaked.

·       Meanwhile, in a national constitutional referendum, Italian voters prevented a large step in the wrong direction from happening. Georgia Meloni’s government proposed significant reforms to the judicial system – which would weaken judicial independence and increase government control – but was defeated heavily. Expectations are this could weaken Meloni’s position as a whole, with general elections expected in 2027.

·       That’s not all for the ballots: Germany’s Friedrich Merz can catch a little breath after his CDU won the election in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate – but the far-right AfD more than doubled its share, whilst the SPD’s vote share collapsed with around 10%. In Denmark, voters go to the polls today – and it’s just like in the movi- the series, apparently.

Central- and Eastern Europe

·       Whilst Tusk and his foreign minister spoke in strong words about Hungary’s treacherous behaviour, the country’s president – Karol Nawrocki – travelled to Budapest yesterday to support his election campaign. He’s not the only prominent far-right figure to do so: this week, the conservative CPAC forum takes place in Budapest, with Matteo Salvini, Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders attending. J.D. Vance is scheduled to visit Orbán in early April.

·       The Hungarian elections, April 12th, have huge stakes for Europe – but there was another one with possible implications this week-end. In Slovenia, incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob won the national elections against his right-wing opponent Janez Janša – but very, very narrowly, losing 12 seats along the way. We discuss the election results, the possible coalition probabilities and their impact on the European Union this afternoon at 15:00 in our webinar.

·       Although it is still a possibility, Janša will probably not become Orbán’s next ally in the European Council. Czechia, on the other hand, is since December 2025 led by a new Andrej Babiš government – and has since joined Robert Fico and Orbán in their fight against the EU’s policies on Ukraine, the environment and migration. After the new government prepared a bill that would restrict the political activity of NGO’s, an estimated 200.000 Czechs demonstrated this weekend in Prague against what they fear is democratic backsliding.

Western Balkans

·       A demonstration in Tirana, organised by the largest oppositional group (the Democratic Party) turned violent on Sunday as protesters threw Molotov cocktails at the office of Prime Minister Edi Rama. Protests have been going on since December 2025, as Rama’s government plans to limit the powers of anti-corruption agency SPAK, which investigated – and currently investigates – a lot of his Socialist Party’s prominent figures. The opposition and protesters fear Albania’s EU accession progress will be impacted negatively by the government’s move.

·       Meanwhile, Montenegro maintains its status as the EU’s star pupil. Last week, it closed another chapter of the EU acquis, bringing its progression to 14 of the 33 negotiating chapters. As mentioned last week, Montenegro’s accession could be aligned with an unlikely comrade: Iceland. Their government says accession talks could be complete by 2028 if voters vote yes in an August referendum.

Southern Caucasus

·       The war in Iran is apparently adding some momentum to the renewed reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan declared earlier this month that efforts would be stepped up to realise a new trade route with Azerbaijan, which has been brokered by the United States, and is seen as key for the linkage of energy-rich Central Asian countries to Europe. Potentially, the trade route could diminish Iranian and Russian influence in the region and diversify Europe’s energy supply.

· Members of the European Parliament have proposed to amend the EU’s yearly report on Georgia, in order to include new sanctions on Georgian TV broadcasters which serve the Georgian Dream government. The MEPs accuse the outlets of spreading Russian disinformation and manipulating public opinion.