The second round of presidential elections took place on the 15 November and were won by Maia Sandu. Sandu managed to defeat pro-Russian incumbent Igor Dodon. Moldova’s diaspora played a significant role in the victory of Maia Sandu in the elections. Moldova’s diaspora previously showed minimal involvement in politics and limited participation in the elections. However, in the 2020 Presidential elections, votes from the diaspora made up 16 percent of the total. These additional votes were able to change the outcome in Sandu’s favor.

After the outcome of the presidential elections in 2020, thousands of Moldovans took to the streets to protest and demand the government’s resignation, demanding snap parliamentary elections. The protests erupted after the parliament, still controlled by the Socialists, approved legislation that would strip Maia Sandu of control over the country’s intelligence service. Instead, the control over the services would be moved under the jurisdiction of the parliament. This was seen by many as a move by Chicu and his allies to take away control from Sandu. The protests were supported by Maia Sandu, who also called on the government to resign.

One month after the elections, on December 23, Moldova’s Prime Minister Ion Chicu and his pro-Russian government stepped down. The resignation came right before a parliament session where a motion of no-confidence against the government would be discussed. After the Chicu government resigned, Sandu put Natalia Gavrilita forward as prime minister to form a government. Gavrilita made two attempts to form a government, but failed both times. According to Moldova’s constitution and electoral code, snap elections are triggered if a government is not formed in 90 days. After the expiration of this constitutionally mandated period, and two failed attempts to form a government, Maia Sandu made her case in front of Moldova’s constitutional court to dissolve parliament. On April 15 the court ruled in favour of Sandu’s request to dissolve parliament.

After the dissolvement of the parliament, snap parliamentary elections were held in July 2021. The elections were a major victory for Sandu’s centre-right pro-European PAS, winning 63 out of the 101 seats in parliament. The pro-Russian Electoral Block of Communists and Socialists (BECS), led by Igor Dodon, only managed to win 32 seats. PAS ran on a platform of European integration, anti-corruption and economic development. This pro-European reformist message again resonated with the Moldovan diaspora. The parliamentary elections again saw a large participation of the diaspora, of which 86 percent of the votes went to PAS.

Both the presidential and parliamentary elections show a shift within Moldova’s political landscape. PAS and Maia Sandu express a pro-European stance, shifting away from the close ties with Russia that were preferred under previous governments. Instead, PAS and Sandu advocated for closer a reformist agenda and closer cooperation with the European Union.

The Transnistria conflict            
The Transnistria conflict is a frozen conflict between Moldova and the separatist Trans-Dniester region, a piece of land between Ukraine and the Dniester river. The region is de jure part of Moldova, but de facto independent. The majority of the population in the region speaks Russian. Dissatisfaction in the region grew when Moldovan was made the official language instead of Russian. The region also feared for a possible reunification with Romania. After a brief war which ended in 1992, Trans-Dniester broke away from Moldova. After a referendum in 2006 the region reasserted its demand for independence and backed a plan to eventually join Russia. The region has its own government which is financially and military supported by Russia. The statehood of the Trans-Dniester region is not recognized by the international community.

Throughout the years the conflict has remained frozen. Russian peacekeeping troops have been stationed in the region since the war in 1992 and maintained the status quo. However, president Maia Sandu has taken a more critical stance than her pro-Russian predecessor. She has criticized former president Dodon for failing to provide concrete plans for the reintegration of the Transnistria, and has also rejected the idea of federalization of the region. Sandu also called for the Russian troops to be removed from the region, so that they could be replaced by civilian monitors with support from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) . However, until now there have not been any changes on the ground.

Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, political leaders in Transnistria are reluctant to announce their recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. As a border region, Transnistria still has major commercial and societal ties with Ukraine and in recent years, its de-facto President Vadim Krasnoselsky has tried to balance Russian and Ukrainian interests. If Moscow intends to annex Transnistria, this is likely to change. For now, Transnistrian authorities categorically reject Sandu’s EU bid – and subsequently try to remain aversive of the invasion of Ukraine.

In recent months, the relationship between Chisinau and Transnistria has not changed for the better, however. A new law adopted by Chisinau allows for easier arrests of separatist Transnistrian leaders. Additionally, Transnistria reportedly featured prominently in the intercepted coup plans.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Moldova at first was precaucious in its stance. It declared itself neutral, as it is heavily dependent on Russian energy imports. The country is one of the poorest in Europe and feared an extension of military operations into its territory. This was only exacerbated after Belarus’s dictator and Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko infamously showed an invasion map to his military elite that showed an extension of operations into Moldovan territory.

Moldova banned the symbolic ‘Z’, ‘V’ and Saint George’s ribbon gestures. These symbolize support for the Russian invasion. The ban was met with fierce Kremlin criticism. On April 22, 2022, Russian Major-General Rustam Minnekayev said that “control over southern Ukraine is another route to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed.” It only exacerbated worries in Moldova on Russian military activities in the future.

In recent months, however, the Russian scare has only grown, and spearheaded by President Sandu, the government has chosen a more aggressive strategy to counter the Kremlin’ s interference. This is especially the case since the adoption of the ‘anti-Russian’ electoral law, the resignation of Prime Minister Gavrilita because of Russian pressure, and the intercepted coup plans. Moldova has since then aligned itself with western powers that support Ukraine against Russian aggression.

EU accession?

Moldova applied for EU membership in March 2022 and obtained candidate membership in June 2022. The European Commission highly commends Moldova and in its 2023 enlargement report recommends opening accession negotiations given the progress made in reforms. Progress has been made in anti-corruption legislation and new legislation to fight organised crime. Steps have been made in democracy and rule of law. Reforms in the judicial system follow EU recommendations. Media ownership has diversified and the government is taking steps to counter (Russian) disinformation. Public finances and public administration are being actively reformed. Moldova’s foreign policy is in growing alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. In Moldova, too, de-oligarchisation is a file that needs continued attention. The commitment and results give much hope for Moldova’s European future. Russian interference will remain a concern and could potentially delay accession, as will the position of the renegade Transnistria region.