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EuroMonitor, Week 16 – Relief and Rejoice in Budapest and Beyond

Hungarian elections

  • He did it. The eyes of the whole world were on Hungary this Sunday, and rightly so: opposition leader Péter Magyar managed to beat incumbent PM Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, in a landslide victory that can easily be branded as a historic moment in the country’s history – with some going as far as putting 2026 on par with the country’s previous uprisings against authoritarians in 1956 and 1989. Magyar himself agrees, stating his movement has ‘freed Hungary from Orbán’s regime’.

 

 

  • Meanwhile, the Polish PiS and other right-wingers around the world are quick to distance themselves from their former buddy. PiS MEP Tobiasz Bochénski stated that Orbán’s policy towards Russia has “always been at odds” with theirs. Uhuh. American Vice President and not-at-all-interferer J.D. Vance said he was “sad, but not surprised” about Orbán’s loss. And in the Kremlin, spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian media he perceives Hungary as an “unfriendly country”, because it had already supported sanctions against Russia. So much for friendship.

 

  • Magyar’s statements on Monday are a clear sign of goodwill towards the EU – and that’s not unexpected, coming from a politician who has vowed to get the EU’s funds towards Hungary flowing again. Hungary is missing out on around €33 billion in loans and funds – which could become permanent if the Magyar does not convince the Commission before September to unblock them. To help him do so, Magyar is turning to an ally nearby: Poland’s PM Donald Tusk, who has some experience with cleaning the rubble of an illiberal regime himself.

 

  • In Kyiv, Ukrainian officials expressed relief, but also stressed caution is advised: restoring the relations between the two countries will take some time, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha Although Magyar has never expressed anti-Ukrainian views, he did state he intends to keep Hungary’s opt-out in financial contribution in place, and plans to keep Russian gas and oil in the Hungarian energy mix.

 

Other affairs

  • Donald Trump’s fallout with Pope Leo – succinctly described by German news outlet Tagesschau as ‘Habemus Beef’ – has put Italian PM Georgia Meloni in a precarious position, Politico writes. Meloni has spent time and effort to build a relation with fellow-rightist Trump, but thanks a lot of her political capital to a conservative-Catholic voter base. After being pressured by opposition parties, she cautiously sided with the pope.

 

  • Although Magyar’s victory has probably sent a lot of eurocrats in unprecedented euphoria, the momentum for EU enlargement might have taken a hit: some member states express more and more wariness regarding bringing in new members, fearing a new enlargement wave could cause a ‘Trojan Horse’-effect, citing the ‘trauma’ of Hungary. Furthermore, member states fear a new accession debate could be wind in the sails of populists – especially (of course) in France, were the far-right Jordan Bardella seems to be well-positioned before the 2027 presidential elections.

 

Want to go completely in depth on the Hungarian elections? We hosted a very informative and productive webinar on the results in co-operation with FEPS this afternoon.

You can rewatch it on YouTube here!