EuroMonitor Week 14: Tensions, Inflations and Concerns Rising
Europe in the World
- The Iran war, and mainly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is slowly but steadily instigating panic on the European continent. Eurozone inflation jumped to its highest level over a year, and Brussels fears an ‘all-out global economic crisis’ – prompting the European Commission to request the Member States to cut back on oil and gas use, especially in the transport sector. The longer the war drags on, the more likely a large economic recession becomes – and European governments seem not to be able to afford the subsidies of the last energy crisis, in 2022.
- But there is another way, says… Ukraine. This week, president Zelenskyy offered his country’s help: Ukraine developed a successful way to break Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea in 2023-2024, and that ‘ready-made ecosystem’ could prove to be useful in the Gulf as well. Could Ukraine, of all countries, prevent Europeans from an involuntary participation in Trump’s illegal war?
Central- and Eastern Europe
- EU foreign ministers have gathered in Kyiv today to honour victims of the Bucha massacre. All EU countries except Hungary pledged to ensure “full accountability” for Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Last year, a coalition endorsed the creation of a special tribunal under the auspices of the Council of Europe, but the initiative has still not obtained support from the United States.
- Hungary’s exclusion from the statement should not come as a surprise to anyone who has followed Hungary’s election race. PM Viktor Orbán is fighting for his political life in the April 12th election, and has been doubling down on his anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian positioning. The situation is escalating each and every week: after last week’s espionage scandal around FM Peter Szijjártó, Hungarian authorities raided the homes of two Tisza employees, accusing them of acting as spies on behalf of Ukraine. Opposition leader Peter Magyar has branded the scandal as the “Hungarian Watergate”.
- Meanwhile, even the fairness of the elections are in doubt. Last week, a documentary by independent journalists aired, accusing Fidesz of offering cash in exchange for votes in rural communities. Whether the elections will be fair will also be very challenging to judge: Fidesz has welcomed an election observation mission initiated by a conservative Polish think tank. Parallel – and disingenuous – observation missions could muddy the waters after the elections and legitimize challenges to the election results on both sides.
Western Balkans
- Serbia has continued its path of democratic backsliding, and reached a new low this weekend. The local elections held in 10 municipalities featured violent incidents in polling stations, towards independent observers, journalists and opposition candidates. Observer organisation CRTA documented that attackers were recognised as employees of governmental organisations and public institutions, indicating a central coordination of electoral obstruction. President Vucic’ governing party SNS won narrowly in many rural places – but not as large as it did before. For good insight into the proceedings of the election day, read this report by Balkan Insight.
- Kosovo’s parliament has another month to complete the process of electing a new President, after Kosovo’s Constitutional Court annulled the decision of current President Vjosa Osmani to dissolve it. Should it fail again, a third parliamentary election in just over a year is looming.
Southern Caucasus
- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was the target of an attempted assault in a church, during a celebration of Palm Sunday. Whether the assault was politically motivated is still a subject of discussion.
- An alliance of opposition parties in Georgia has announced the launch of a new nationwide campaign, culminating in a large-scale rally on the country’s Independence Day on May 26th.
