The transformation of Serbia since the break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s has been very dynamic, to say the least. From a dictatorship heavily involved in the wars in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo bombed by NATO, via a peaceful revolution and democratization, towards a semi-authoritarian regime that has opened the EU accession negotiations in January of 2014. The current President Tomislav Nikolić, former leader of Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), is in power since May 2012. In April 2017 the next presidential elections will be held. Parliamentary elections were held in 2012, 2014 and 2016, always strengthening the coalition block of the SNS, dividing the opposition and decreasing their influence.
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- 7,098,247 million (World Bank 2015 est.)
- Governmental Type:
- Ruling Coalition:
- SNS, SPS, SDPS, PS, PUPS
- Last Elections:
- 24 April 2016 (parliamentary elections)
- Next Elections:
- 2017 (presidential elections)
- Sister Parties:
- Democratic Party, (DS), Social Democratic Party (SDS)
Hopes were high after the citizens and social movement Otpor (Resistance) toppled the Milošević regime in 2000 without a single bullet being fired. A pro-European Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) coalition took over the power and one of the main parties within that coalition, the center-left Democratic Party (DS) – remained in power for the most time until 2012. On the one hand the rule of law, freedom of the press and European integration got a tremendous boost with the downfall of the dictatorship. On the other hand, the country did not manage to develop its economy sufficiently and give hope to the young people who are leaving, while the ruling elite did not manage to change the political culture. In addition, the relations with Kosovo continued to be a political burden. Milošević’s former nationalist political partners used this disappointment to wrap themselves in a European flag and win the 2012 parliamentary and presidential elections: current Prime Minister Vučić (Serbian Progressive Party, SNS) and President Nikolić (SNS) served as, respectively, minister of information and vice-president during the Milošević regime.
With nationalists back in power the rule of law and democracy regressed. Institutions are weak, not independent and distrusted by the citizens. As a consequence, citizens’ main way to participate in political life is by voting at elections. At the same time the turn-out at the elections is low: 56 percent at the 2016 elections. While the civil society is putting effort to improve the quality of democracy, the government is reluctant to engage in a dialogue with the (civil) society, framing internationally financed civil society as ‘foreign agents’. Investment in active citizenship and knowledge about the political system is lacking while these are important tools to enhance democracy. Media freedom-wise Serbia is moving in the Macedonia direction: a total control of the public broadcaster and all other major media by the government. Editors and managers from (formerly) independent media outlets are being fired, or decide to quit their job, some being afraid of verbal and physical attacks on them and their family. In addition, there is no transparency in media ownership.
EU candidate status
After ten rounds of talks in 2013, Belgrade and Pristina signed a historic deal mediated by Brussels, normalizing relations, opening their way towards EU integration and granting Serb majority municipalities in Kosovo broad powers in education, health care and spatial planning. The implementation of the deal on the ground remains a major challenge. The agreement had positive effects for Serbia and Kosovo with regard to the EU integration. Serbia opened the accession negotiations, while Kosovo signed its first agreement with the EU that should lead to the Stabilisation and Association Agreement.
As a result of the breakthrough with Kosovo, the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between the EU and Serbia entered into force in September 2013. Three months later the Council adopted the negotiating framework, wherefore Serbia could hold the first Intergovernmental Conference on 21 January 2014. This date marks the formal start of the accession negotiations. In line with the new EU strategy, chapters 23 (rule of law) and 24 (fundamental rights) were one of the first ones to be opened. The government, however, did not use this opportunity to propagate the reforms related to these chapters as the action plan was adopted quietly in the parliament, with MP’s obtaining the action plan one hour before the vote. Although the perspective of European integration had a big impact on the transformation of Serbian politics, and society to a certain extent, it lacked a long term sustainable approach. Moreover, the ruling elite misused European integration to legitimize all their actions; this “we-have-to-do-this-because-the-EU- says-so" attitude resulted in slow transformation during which the political elite acted like it was not in the interest in Serbia to engage in the European integration related reforms. The long-term prospect of EU membership is not enough for the political elites in the region to reform. This is also shown by the fact that Serbia is not aligning her foreign affairs policy to the EU’s policies. Also, the government is successfully creating an image about the strong historical, brotherly and spiritual relations between Serbia and Russia. Although the debate about the relations with Russia is blown about of proportions, the ‘love’ for Russia – after Belarus Serbia scores the best when it comes to popularity of Russia – offers the nationalist political elite an escape card when recognition of Kosovo will be demanded as a prerequisite for EU membership.
Another important instrument in the EU accession process is the Berlin Process. Although it rightfully aims to enhance regional integration and cooperation, it lacks ownership (top-down process), is not transparent and only six EU member states are directly involved. Therefore, many political analysts and journalist are sceptical about the EU integration: as long as Serbia is cooperating on Kosovo, engages in regional cooperation and acts as a stable reliable actor to the EU, it will get EU’s carte blanche on internal politics. Consequently, the quality of democracy has decrease: less free press, weakened rule of law and an increasingly authoritarian regime.
Former President formed new party in 2014
On 30 January 2014 former President of Serbia Boris Tadić resigned as honorary president of the Democratic Party (DS), splitting the vote on the center-left. Tadić said he decided to leave because of disagreements with the direction in which the Democrats were heading under the new leadership. DS was at that moment looking for a potential coalition with the New Party (Nova Stranka) led by Zoran Živković, a former member of the DS who has accused Tadić of being corrupt. After his resignation Tadić started his own party: the New Democratic party (NDS). In early 2014 the NDS signed a political cooperation with the Greens and therefore have a new name: NDS-Z. With this party Tadić and the League of Social Democrats of Vojvoodina (LSV) Tadić won enough votes in the parliamentary elections of 2014 to pass the threshold. Meanwhile the party changed its name into Social Democratic Party (SDS). The relations with DS have improved a bit lately due to leadership change at DS.
In Serbia parliamentary elections are often called early: in 2016 the last parliamentary elections took place, only two years after the parliamentary elections in 2014. They in turn, were also two years early, as there had been elections in 2012. Prime Minister Vučić called two early parliamentary elections in order to, as he argues, confirm the support for his reformist agenda. In reality, however, he has mastered the acts of dividing the opposition and cutting off their finances, control of the mainstream media and the election process, and, finding the optimal moment to pull together the resources for yet another election victory.
On 30 January 2014 Serbian President Tomislav Nikolić called early parliamentary elections. According to the president “Serbia shall certainly get a government with more energy and enthusiasm and released from problems that this government has solved”. The coalition government, SNS is the main party, explained its request for early elections by the need to ensure "as wide as possible support for accelerated reforms and modernization of Serbia". However, the fact that SNS was skyrocketing in all polls (above 40 percent) is considered as the crucial factor for SNS to go to the polls and having its leader Aleksandar Vučić return as Prime Minister, after having been Minister of Defence. On 16 March 2014, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 48.4 percent of the seats in parliament. Next to them, only three parties surpassed the threshold of 5 percent: Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 13.5 percent, Democratic Party (DS) 6 percent, and the coalition around former President Boris Tadić 5,7 percent.
In 2016, Vučić stated that the preliminary elections were needed in order to ensure the smooth transition towards the EU and implementation of reform. During the elections SNS led coalition obtained 48 percent of the votes, Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) 11 percent and Serbian Radical Party (SRS) 9 percent. Just three other parties managed to pass the 5 percent threshold: DS and It’s Enough Movement obtained 6 percent while the coalition of Social Democratic Party (Tadić), League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV, Čanak) and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) just passed the 5 percent threshold. After the elections, in a joint statement, leaders of DS, Tadić-coalition and It’s Enough movement stated that the elections were rigged. According to Bojan Pajtić (DS) many cases have been observed in which voters entered the polling stations with a ballot box that was already filled in. They were asked to prove to the ‘activists’ of the ruling SNS who were waiting outside the polling station that they have submitted this ballot by giving them the empty ballot they obtained inside the polling station.
|Party||Results 2016||Results 2014|
|Serbian Progressive Party of PM Vučić (SNS, former Radicals)||48.25 %||48.35 %|
|Serbian Socialist Party of FM Dačić (SPS, formerly led by Milošević)||11.01 %||13.49 %|
|Serbian Radical Party (Šešelj)||8.05 %||2.01 %|
|Democratic Party (DS), sister party formerly led by Bojan Pajtić, now Dragan Šutanovic||6.04 %||6.03 %|
|It’s Enough Movement (Radulović, liberal party)||5.95 %||2.09 %|
|SDS-LDP-LSV (Tadić, Jovanović and Čanak left wing coalition)||5.03 %||5.70 %|
|Dveri (social, religious conservative party)||5.00 %||3.58 %|
The atmosphere of repression and fear in the run up and during the elections is reflected in the Savamala demolition: during the election night, a masked man blocked a part of the Belgrade city center and demolished buildings with bulldozers where a state-backed complex is supposed to be built. By doing this they helped the authorities speeding up the building process of the controversial United Arab Emirates supported project ‘Belgrade Waterfront’. Moreover, a special law has been adopted in the parliament which states that any future law can’t be in conflict with the contract agreed with UAE. The police did not react on the calls of many citizens who saw buildings being teared down.
In April 2017 presidential elections will be held. Presidents are elected for a five-year term through a two-round system. This means that if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the votes during the first round, the two top candidates will compete in a second round. The first round of these elections is thus scheduled on 2 April, the second round on 16 April. The presidential candidates include the current prime minister and SNS leader Aleksandar Vučić, as he was not confident that the current President and his preceptor Tomislav Nikolić would win. Despite some efforts the opposition did not manage to come up with a joint candidate that can challenge Vučić who hopes to win in the first round. In a second round his most likely opponent is independent candidate and former Ombudsman Šaša Janković or former Foreign Affairs Minister Vuk Jermić. DS has decided to support Janković.
Presidential elections of 2012
On 20 May 2012, SNS leader Tomislav Nikolić won the presidential runoff against the leader of the Democrats Boris Tadić in the second round of the presidential elections. It was predicted that Tadić would win as he was leading in polls and came out first in the first round. According to the preliminary results of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy, CeSID, Tomislav Nikolić won 49.8 percent and Boris Tadić 47 percent of the votes. CeSID Program Director Marko Blagojević told at a press conference that the total voter turnout had been 46.3 percent, which is less than in any elections since 2004. Only in Vojvodina Tadić gained more votes – 52.2 percent, while Nikolić got 44.2 percent of the votes. Outgoing President Tadić served as Serbia's president for two mandates since 2004.
- BBC country profile
- CIA world factbook
- United Nations – common county assessment
- Worldbank reports
- IMF reports
- Instute for War and Peace Reporting
- Election World.org
- OSCE/ ODIHR
- European Commission Serbia and Montenegro - Stabilisation and Association Report 2004
- European Union’s external relation’s with Serbia and Montenegro
- Serbian politics
- Political parties BBC
- Election Guide
- UN International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia
- War Crimes Tribunal Watch
- Institute for War and Peace Reporting on the Tribunal
News and analysis
- BETA News Agency
- Civilatas Research
- Freedom house
- Institute for war and peace reporting
- Radio Free Europe – Radio Liberty
- Transitions Online
- World Press Review
- Balkan Times
- SE Times